China and India are seeking alternatives to Russian oil amid the new U.S. sanctions, turning to Middle Eastern suppliers like the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. Meanwhile, Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, continues to lag in output, missing out on this opportunity.
Key Insights:
Nigeria’s Decline: Despite claims of increased production, Nigeria averaged 1.484 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, below its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota and far from its 2019 peak of over 2 million bpd.
Middle East Advantage: With surplus production capacity, OPEC leaders such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are positioned to meet rising demand, benefiting from the supply gap created by sanctions on Russia.
Global Oil Shifts: India and China, key drivers of global oil demand, are diversifying supply sources, while OPEC works to stabilize prices amid quota challenges from OPEC+ members like Russia.
Unless Nigeria addresses its production shortfalls, it risks losing competitiveness in the evolving global oil market.
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