The Naira Eyes Stability, the Dollar Holds Its Breath
As Nigeria’s currency inches upward, global uncertainty keeps the dollar walking a fiscal tightrope.
The Nigerian naira traded just below the N1600/$ resistance in the unofficial market after low activity during recent holidays. Early Tuesday, it hovered around N1587–1590/$, signaling cautious optimism.
Key Drivers in Nigeria:
|Business Sentiment: A CBN survey showed strong business confidence, especially in agriculture. Factory managers and traders expect hiring and growth in H2.
|Expert Outlook: Economist Bismarck Rewane predicts the naira will range between N1600–1650/$ soon, noting it’s still ~27% undervalued. He highlights the narrowing gap between official and parallel rates — now just 1–3%.
Dollar Watch – Global Markets
¶ Stability Amid Uncertainty: The U.S. dollar index is steady at 98.99, despite a 9% YTD drop.
¶ Key Concerns: Inflation data due Wednesday may reveal tariff effects. Ongoing U.S.-China talks in London cover chips, rare earths, and visas — but lack quick-win resolutions.
¶ Analyst Warning: UBS’ Dean Turner cautions that the dollar, while still dominant, feels riskier amid political turmoil and fiscal uncertainty.
Bottom Line
The naira is gaining modest strength with renewed local confidence, while the dollar holds steady globally — though clouds loom over both due to economic and political headwinds.
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