Analysts expect Nigeria’s headline inflation for March 2025 to remain largely stable or rise only slightly, maintaining a trajectory close to February’s 23.18%. This tempered outlook is driven by a combination of base effects, stable food prices, and relative calm in fuel and foreign exchange markets, though cost pressures remain.
According to Samuel Oyekanmi, Head of Research at Norrenberger, “The continued effect of rebasing and favourable base effects are expected to exert a moderating influence,” but the late-month naira depreciation and petrol price uptick could push inflation higher in the coming months.
Olatunde Amolegbe, CEO of Arthur Steven Asset Management, pointed to food price stability and a relatively calm FX market for most of March as positive signs, predicting only a modest inflation rise of 25–50 basis points. He added, “That should give the monetary policy authorities the impetus to start to consider the lowering of interest rates.”
Similarly, Ebo Ayodebi, MD at Optimus by Afrinvest, cited “a high base effect and stability in FX and fuel prices in the first half of the month” as cushioning factors.
However, April may tell a different story.
Analysts are raising red flags over two major inflationary threats:
* A spike in the landing cost of imported petrol—up by ₦88 per litre to ₦885—could lead to a nationwide pump price hike, pushing up transport and energy-related costs.
* The naira’s sharp depreciation to ₦1,600/$1 in early April, partly due to a 14% US tariff on Nigerian exports, is expected to intensify imported inflation.
These factors could undo the relative price stability of March and reignite inflationary pressure in April, especially on food, fuel, and essential goods.
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